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Market efficiency under institutional change: A historical study of the silver interbank lending market in modern China

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  • Qiao, Huiquan
  • Liu, Fang
  • Zhang, Shuwen

Abstract

This paper examines the operational efficiency of the silver interbank lending rate market in modern China, exploring its influence on financial market development and its critical role within the economic system from a historical perspective. Based on qualitative and quantitative analyses of Shanghai silver interbank lending rates and related economic indicators from 1873 to 1932, the study first outlines the historical trajectory of market development. It then constructs a multiple regression model to empirically test the effects of variables such as industrial expansion, export trade, and silver reserves on the silver lending rate. Finally, by analyzing market fluctuations during special periods (e.g., World War I and the global economic crisis), the paper reveals the market's vulnerabilities and offers insights into financial stability. This research not only deepens the understanding of financial market efficiency in modern history but also provides valuable references for building a more resilient modern interest rate market mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiao, Huiquan & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Shuwen, 2025. "Market efficiency under institutional change: A historical study of the silver interbank lending market in modern China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:83:y:2025:i:c:s154461232500861x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107602
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