Option positions, non-momentum trading, and Bitcoin futures returns

Do option positions contain incremental information beyond futures positions? If so, where does the information come from? Using weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders data for CME Bitcoin derivatives, we show that asset managers’ option positions selectively predict the second-week-ahead weekly futures return. The predictive content is concentrated in the non-momentum component of option-position changes, indicating residual positioning pressure rather than return-chasing behavior. Granger-causality tests reveal that futures returns lead asset-manager option positions, confirming that the signal reflects response to return shocks rather than causal price impact. We further conduct mechanism and robustness analyses, including alternative return definitions, out-of-sample forecasts, and state-dependent tests, which show the effect is associated with high-downside-risk states. These findings highlight the informational role of regulated trader categories in cryptocurrency derivatives and provide new evidence on trader heterogeneity, short-horizon predictability, and the selective predictive content of non-momentum option trades.