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On the nonstationarity of the exchange rate process


  • Ohnishi, Takaaki
  • Takayasu, Hideki
  • Ito, Takatoshi
  • Hashimoto, Yuko
  • Watanabe, Tsutomu
  • Takayasu, Misako


We empirically investigate the nonstationarity property of the USD–JPY exchange rate by using a high frequency data set spanning 8years. We perform a statistical test of strict stationarity based on the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for the absolute price changes, and Pearson's chi square test for the number of successive price changes in the same direction, and find statistically significant evidence of nonstationarity. Further, we study the recurrence intervals between the days in which nonstationarity occurs and find that the distribution of recurrence intervals is well approximated by an exponential distribution. In addition, we find that the mean conditional recurrence interval hTjT0i is independent of the previous recurrence interval T0. These findings indicate that the recurrence intervals are characterized by a Poisson process. We interpret this observation as a reflection of the Poisson property regarding the arrival of news.

Suggested Citation

  • Ohnishi, Takaaki & Takayasu, Hideki & Ito, Takatoshi & Hashimoto, Yuko & Watanabe, Tsutomu & Takayasu, Misako, 2012. "On the nonstationarity of the exchange rate process," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 30-34.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:23:y:2012:i:c:p:30-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2011.06.010

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O.O., 2008. "Bifurcation routes to volatility clustering under evolutionary learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 27-47, July.
    3. Barunik, Jozef & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2010. "On Hurst exponent estimation under heavy-tailed distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3844-3855.
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    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    6. Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
    7. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 503-536, September.
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