Networked liquidity risk contagion in high-carbon sectors: The role of multi-agent behavioral constraints

This study analyzes the formation and contagion mechanism of liquidity risk under the synergistic effect of the government, high‑carbon manufacturing enterprises, and investors from a multi-agent behavioral constraints perspective. We construct a business association network using multilayer network theory and a liquidity risk contagion model for high‑carbon manufacturing enterprises based on mean-field theory and the epidemic model to analyze the contagion law of liquidity risk through simulation. There are two aspects to the findings of this study. (1) Although a single regulation of multi-agent behavioral constraints for the government, high‑carbon manufacturing enterprises, and investors may reduce the probability of high‑carbon manufacturing businesses' liquidity risk contagion, the required conditions are highly stringent. The gradual elimination of high‑carbon manufacturing enterprises' liquidity risk contagion can be effectively achieved by comprehensively regulating the factors of multi-agent behavioral constraints. (2) For liquidity risk contagion intensity, policy change radicality, carbon regulation uncertainty, and technological application complexity have global reinforcement effects on other factors. In comparison to the multilayer business association network, the single-layer network tends to overestimate the extent of liquidity risk contagion between high‑carbon manufacturing enterprises. This study can not only provide decision-making basis for high‑carbon manufacturing enterprises to orderly promote low-carbon transformation, but also provide reference for the government to formulate efficient liquidity risk contagion prevention and control strategies from the perspective of multi-agent behavioral constraints.