IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v85y2026ics0927539825001057.html

On evaluating the style-selection skill of hedge funds

Author

Listed:
  • Ye, Xiaolin
  • Li, Baibing
  • Tee, Kai-Hong

Abstract

A distinctive feature of hedge funds is their dynamic style of trading; hedge funds may shift the investment style in their lifetime. Style shifting is a strategic decision for funds which is beyond the more traditional stock-picking and market-timing carried out at the operational level. This paper tests and validates the performance implications of style-selection skill of hedge funds. Based on the trading style identification through Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis and the measure of style-selection skill developed in this paper, we find that such skill has predictive power for future fund performance, persisting for up to one year. In addition, our findings reveal that funds exhibiting greater style-selection skill enhance the probability of survival. Furthermore, we show that smaller, solo-managed funds operated by managers with longer tenure and higher management fees tend to have greater style-selection skill. Our findings support investors’ decisions when selecting hedge funds. It also opens a new perspective for managerial skills in active money management, reflecting managers’ expertise in data processing about micro and macro information and shocks to achieve success, when considering the investment style.

Suggested Citation

  • Ye, Xiaolin & Li, Baibing & Tee, Kai-Hong, 2026. "On evaluating the style-selection skill of hedge funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:85:y:2026:i:c:s0927539825001057
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101683
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539825001057
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101683?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chengdong Yin & Xiaoyan Zhang & Wei Jiang, 2023. "Risking or Derisking: How Management Fees Affect Hedge Fund Risk-Taking Choices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 904-944.
    2. Li, Haitao & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhao, Rui, 2011. "Investing in Talents: Manager Characteristics and Hedge Fund Performances," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 59-82, February.
    3. Jeffrey A. Busse & Qing Tong, 2012. "Mutual Fund Industry Selection and Persistence," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 245-274.
    4. Marcin Kacperczyk & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2014. "Time-Varying Fund Manager Skill," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1455-1484, August.
    5. Agarwal, Vikas & Daniel, Naveen D. & Naik, Narayan Y., 2009. "Role of managerial incentives and discretion in hedge fund performance," CFR Working Papers 04-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2009. "Global market integration: An alternative measure and its application," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 214-232, November.
    7. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2019. "Upside potential of hedge funds as a predictor of future performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 212-229.
    8. Ma, Tianyi & Li, Baibing & Tee, Kai-Hong, 2022. "Mispricing chasing and hedge fund returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 34-49.
    9. Aggarwal, Rajesh K. & Jorion, Philippe, 2010. "The performance of emerging hedge funds and managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 238-256, May.
    10. Mila Getmansky, 2012. "The Life Cycle of Hedge Funds: Fund Flows, Size, Competition, and Performance," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-53.
    11. Lin Sun & Zheng Sun & Lu Zheng, 2024. "The start matters: time-varying investor demand, hedge fund inceptions, and performance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 729-768.
    12. Berk, Jonathan B. & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2015. "Measuring skill in the mutual fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 1-20.
    13. Chen, Yuhao & Kuang, Huan & Liang, Bing, 2024. "Managerial structure in the hedge fund industry," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Zheng Sun & Ashley Wang & Lu Zheng, 2012. "The Road Less Traveled: Strategy Distinctiveness and Hedge Fund Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 96-143.
    15. Charles Cao & Grant Farnsworth & Hong Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Hedge Fund Startups: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1427-1469, June.
    16. Lu, Yan & Ray, Sugata & Teo, Melvyn, 2016. "Limited attention, marital events and hedge funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 607-624.
    17. Vikas Agarwal & Naveen D. Daniel & Narayan Y. Naik, 2009. "Role of Managerial Incentives and Discretion in Hedge Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2221-2256, October.
    18. Renée Adams & Daniel Ferreira, 2010. "Moderation in Groups: Evidence from Betting on Ice Break-ups in Alaska," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(3), pages 882-913.
    19. Boyson, Nicole M., 2010. "Implicit incentives and reputational herding by hedge fund managers," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-299, June.
    20. Michael E. Tipping & Christopher M. Bishop, 1999. "Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(3), pages 611-622.
    21. Horst, Jenke ter & Salganik, Galla, 2014. "Style chasing by hedge fund investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 29-42.
    22. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2015. "Scale and skill in active management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 23-45.
    23. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2014. "Macroeconomic risk and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-19.
    24. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September.
    25. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O. & Celiker, Umut, 2021. "Does Industry Timing Ability of Hedge Funds Predict Their Future Performance, Survival, and Fund Flows?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(6), pages 2136-2169, September.
    26. Naohiko Baba & Hiromichi Goko, 2006. "Survival Analysis of Hedge Funds," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    27. William Fung & David A. Hsieh & Narayan Y. Naik & Tarun Ramadorai, 2008. "Hedge Funds: Performance, Risk, and Capital Formation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1777-1803, August.
    28. George J. Jiang & Bing Liang & Huacheng Zhang, 2022. "Hedge Fund Manager Skill and Style-Shifting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2284-2307, March.
    29. Chengdong Yin, 2016. "The Optimal Size of Hedge Funds: Conflict between Investors and Fund Managers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1857-1894, August.
    30. William Fung & David A. Hsieh, 2004. "Hedge Fund Benchmarks: A Risk-Based Approach," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(5), pages 65-80, September.
    31. Clare, Andrew & Sherman, Meadhbh & O'Sullivan, Niall & Gao, Jun & Zhu, Sheng, 2022. "Manager characteristics: Predicting fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    32. Cao, Charles & Chen, Yong & Liang, Bing & Lo, Andrew W., 2013. "Can hedge funds time market liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 493-516.
    33. Liang, Bing & Park, Hyuna, 2010. "Predicting Hedge Fund Failure: A Comparison of Risk Measures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 199-222, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George J. Jiang & Bing Liang & Huacheng Zhang, 2022. "Hedge Fund Manager Skill and Style-Shifting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2284-2307, March.
    2. Zhuo Chen & Andrea Lu & Xiaoquan Zhu, 2025. "Investor Sentiment and the Pricing of Macro Risks for Hedge Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(2), pages 1623-1645, February.
    3. Malakhov, Alexey & Riley, Timothy B. & Yan, Qing, 2024. "Do hedge funds bet against beta?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1507-1525.
    4. Namvar, Ethan & Phillips, Blake & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Raghavendra Rau, P., 2016. "Do hedge funds dynamically manage systematic risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Ling, Yun & Satchell, Stephen & Yao, Juan, 2023. "Decreasing returns to scale and skill in hedge funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    6. Charles Cao & Grant Farnsworth & Hong Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Hedge Fund Startups: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1427-1469, June.
    7. Vikas Agarwal & Stefan Ruenzi & Florian Weigert, 2018. "Unobserved Performance of Hedge Funds," Working Papers on Finance 1825, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    8. George O. Aragon & Ji-Woong Chung & Byoung Uk Kang, 2023. "Do Prime Brokers Matter in the Search for Informed Hedge Fund Managers?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(8), pages 4932-4952, August.
    9. Canepa, Alessandra & de la O. González, María & Skinner, Frank S., 2020. "Hedge fund strategies: A non-parametric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Arpit Gupta & Kunal Sachdeva, 2025. "Skin or Skim? Inside Investment and Hedge Fund Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(4), pages 3357-3383, April.
    11. Kooli, Maher & Zhang, Min, 2022. "Not only skill but also scale: Evidence from the hedge funds industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Chen, Yuhao & Kuang, Huan & Liang, Bing, 2024. "Managerial structure in the hedge fund industry," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    13. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, Tracy Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2017. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," CFR Working Papers 15-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), revised 2017.
    14. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    15. Bali, Turan G. & Weigert, Florian, 2021. "Hedge funds and the positive idiosyncratic volatility effect," CFR Working Papers 21-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    16. Yong Chen & Bing Han & Jing Pan, 2021. "Sentiment Trading and Hedge Fund Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 2001-2033, August.
    17. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, T. Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2018. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 417-434.
    18. Li, Lu & Li, Yang & Wang, Xueding & He, Yuqian, 2021. "Limited attention, managerial multitasking, and hedge fund performance in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Kooli, Maher & Stetsyuk, Ivan, 2021. "Are hedge fund managers skilled?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    20. Ben-David, Itzhak & Birru, Justin & Rossi, Andrea, 2020. "The Performance of Hedge Fund Performance Fees," Working Paper Series 2020-14, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:85:y:2026:i:c:s0927539825001057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.