Integrating historical data and multi-scenario simulation to reveal evolutionary trajectories of ecosystem service bundles in the Yellow River Basin

Against ongoing land use transformation and climate change, understanding how ecosystem services (ESs) and their bundles evolve over time is critical for sustainable ecosystem management. This study advances ES bundle (ESB) research by moving beyond static classification and explicitly quantifying long-term ESB evolution trajectories. By integrating historical observations (1990–2020) with multi-scenario land-use projections for 2040 and 2060, we traced ESB transition pathways across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) using an edit-distance-based approach under four scenarios: Natural Development Scenario (NDS), Ecological Conservation Priority Scenario (ECPS), Rapid Economic Development Scenario (REDS), and Climate Change Scenario (CCS). Results reveal strong scenario-dependent land-use changes, which in turn drive pronounced differences in ESs and ESB dynamics, with construction land expansion varying markedly across scenarios. Grain production increased under NDS, ECPS, and REDS but declined under CCS, while habitat quality improved slightly across all scenarios. Carbon sequestration increased under CCS, whereas soil conservation decreased consistently. Water yield declined under NDS, ECPS, and REDS but increased under CCS. Six ESBs and 21 evolution trajectories were identified. Among the 21 ESB evolution trajectories, 44.01% of counties followed unsustainable pathways, covering 65.31% of the YRB and concentrated mainly in the northwest, with scattered occurrences in the midstream and downstream regions. Overall, by revealing where and how ESBs shift under alternative futures, this trajectory-based, multi-scenario framework provides policy-relevant insights for identifying sustainability risks and supporting adaptive ecosystem management in the YRB.