Payment for ecosystem services of the Hyrcanian forests based on stakeholder preferences for flood risk mitigation

Floods are among the most serious environmental challenges globally, and forests play a key role in mitigating their impacts. This study aimed to investigate the willingness to participate and the preferences of flood-affected residents in northern Iran within a Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) scheme for the Hyrcanian forests, and to identify the factors influencing its acceptance. Within the framework of applied econometrics and with the aim of estimating stated preferences, the data for the research were collected in 2020 from 110 households residing in flood-affected areas using the choice experiment valuation method. Statistical analyses and estimation of preference attributes were conducted using Conditional Logit, Multinomial Logit, Random Parameter Logit, and Latent Class Model. Comparing the models results indicatedthe superior fit of the Latent Class Model logit. Stakeholder preferences, based on their Willingness to Pay (WTP), prioritized the most effective components in increasing the utility of participation as improvedforest management ($0.64 per month), watershed management ($0.13), land use management ($0.04) respectively. Furthermore, the total WTP for preserving the Hyrcanian Forest ecosystem to mitigate flood risk was estimated at $1.24 per household per month. The study establishes a critical link between environmental economics and conservation policy for forest ecosystems affected by floods throughthe provision of a dual-purpose framework. Therefore, the study outputs can serve as a basis for optimal budget allocation, the design of PES scheme contracts, and the development of targeted awareness programs. These applications aim to leverage the services of the Hyrcanian forests for future flood risk reduction.