Advancing global forest sustainability by linking household dependence to provisioning ecosystem services in Ethiopia

Forests play a critical role in sustaining human well-being in dryland socio-ecological systems, where provisioning ecosystem services underpin rural livelihoods. However, empirical evidence remains limited on how state-led forest protection shapes the availability, spatial distribution, and household dependence on provisioning services over time. This study assesses the dynamics of provisioning ecosystem services in the Wujig-Mahgo-Waren State Forest, Tigray, Ethiopia, by comparing conditions before (2010) and after (2019) formal state protection. We employed an integrated mixed-methods framework combining household surveys (n = 278), key informant interviews (n = 24), participatory mapping, and Landsat-based land-use/land-cover analysis to quantify service use, map spatial supply patterns, and identify socioeconomic determinants of household utilization using binary logistic regression. Forestland (29.9%), cropland (29.7%), rangeland (20.4%), and shrubland (19.8%) contributed differently to service provision, with fodder (78%) and fuelwood (73%) being the most widely accessed services, followed by medicinal plants (25.5%) and freshwater (19.8%). While 72.7% of households reported increased availability of fuelwood, fodder, and water between 2010 and 2019, perceived declines were observed for medicinal plants, wild fruits, and honey production. Household utilization of provisioning services was significantly associated with gender, marital status, education level, household size, income, and distance to forest margins (p < 0.05). Overall, the results indicate that state forest protection can enhance key livelihood-supporting provisioning services, but services linked to biodiversity and cultural values remain vulnerable. By explicitly linking temporal change, spatial patterns, and household-level determinants, this study provides policy-relevant evidence to inform adaptive dryland forest management and governance strategies that balance livelihood needs with ecosystem resilience in the Global South.