Analysis of spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem services distribution in the southern part of the Atlantic Forest in Brazil

Understanding ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for policies aimed at ensuring biodiversity conservation, natural resources, and livelihoods for humanity. In the state of Paraná, southern Brazil, the overlap between the Atlantic Forest domain and extensive agricultural areas suggests possible trade-offs between natural ecosystems and commodity production. This study aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution, synergies, trade-offs, and the net change among multiple ES at the state level. We selected nine indicators of four categories of ES: regulating services (carbon storage, soil conservation, and water yield), supporting services (plant biodiversity), provisioning services (cassava, orange, and soybean production), and cultural services (aesthetics and archaeological patrimony). Results indicated contrasting dynamics over the past decades. While provisioning services, especially soybean production, increased substantially, regulating services declined, revealing clear trade-offs in land-use priorities. Synergies were observed among regulating, cultural, and supporting services, especially in areas with preserved vegetation. Conversely, trade-offs emerged between provisioning and regulating services, notably between the expansion of soybeans and carbon storage. Municipalities exhibited variations in ES production, and four distinct groups were identified based on the similarity of indicator values among municipalities. These regional disparities, influenced by land use and conservation practices, resulted in the formation of landscape clusters (bundles): Non-fragmented Forest Landscape, Fragmented Forest Landscape, Homogeneous Agricultural Landscape, and Mixed Agricultural Landscape. Different synergies and trade-offs among ES indicators highlighted the ecological and social dynamics over time and the land use strategies promoted, which reduced regulating services in favor of commodity production. These findings demonstrate the spatial variability of ES and highlight how land-use strategies can intensify trade-offs while weakening ecological multifunctionality. The study highlights the importance of integrated land management in balancing provisioning demands with the maintenance of ecological functions and promoting the diversification of ecosystem services provision.