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Inference on the tail process with application to financial time series modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Davis, Richard A.
  • Drees, Holger
  • Segers, Johan
  • Warchoł, Michał

Abstract

To draw inference on serial extremal dependence within heavy-tailed Markov chains, Drees et al., (2015) proposed nonparametric estimators of the spectral tail process. The methodology can be extended to the more general setting of a stationary, regularly varying time series. The large-sample distribution of the estimators is derived via empirical process theory for cluster functionals. The finite-sample performance of these estimators is evaluated via Monte Carlo simulations. Moreover, two different bootstrap schemes are employed which yield confidence intervals for the pre-asymptotic spectral tail process: the stationary bootstrap and the multiplier block bootstrap. The estimators are applied to stock price data to study the persistence of positive and negative shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, Richard A. & Drees, Holger & Segers, Johan & Warchoł, Michał, 2018. "Inference on the tail process with application to financial time series modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 508-525.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:205:y:2018:i:2:p:508-525
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.01.009
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Drees, Holger & Janßen, Anja & Neblung, Sebastian, 2021. "Cluster based inference for extremes of time series," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1-33.
    2. Damek, Ewa & Mikosch, Thomas & Zhao, Yuwei & Zienkiewicz, Jacek, 2023. "Whittle estimation based on the extremal spectral density of a heavy-tailed random field," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 232-267.
    3. Bücher, Axel & Jennessen, Tobias, 2022. "Statistical analysis for stationary time series at extreme levels: New estimators for the limiting cluster size distribution," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 75-106.
    4. Gloria Buriticá & Philippe Naveau, 2023. "Stable sums to infer high return levels of multivariate rainfall time series," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), June.
    5. Buriticá, Gloria & Mikosch, Thomas & Wintenberger, Olivier, 2023. "Large deviations of ℓp-blocks of regularly varying time series and applications to cluster inference," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 68-101.
    6. Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque & Yaohao Peng & João Pedro Fontoura da Silva, 2022. "Making the whole greater than the sum of its parts: A literature review of ensemble methods for financial time series forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1701-1724, December.

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