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From catastrophe to culture: The role of historical disasters in shaping long-term orientation

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Meng
  • Wang, Jun
  • Ang, James B.
  • Fredriksson, Per G.

Abstract

Natural disasters expose societies to an external environment that requires forward-looking adaptation. This paper argues that societies with greater historical exposure to natural disasters are more likely to develop long-term-oriented norms that emphasize preparation, saving, and future well-being. We test this hypothesis by linking historical exposure to earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions from 4360 BC to 1980 CE to contemporary long-term orientation. Disaster exposure is proxied by a distance-based measure that aggregates proximity to major catastrophic events over long horizons. Long-term orientation is examined using folklore traditions at the ethnic level and survey-based evidence at the individual and country levels. Across all levels of analysis, we find that greater cumulative disaster exposure is associated with significantly stronger long-term orientation. Evidence from folklore and second-generation migrants suggests that these effects operate through cultural adaptation and intergenerational transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Meng & Wang, Jun & Ang, James B. & Fredriksson, Per G., 2027. "From catastrophe to culture: The role of historical disasters in shaping long-term orientation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:184:y:2027:i:c:s0304387826001641
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103881
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General

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