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Electoral politics over automation in a dual economy

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  • Roy, Jaideep
  • Saha, Bibhas

Abstract

When automation in a developing economy displaces low-skilled workers in the advanced sector, backward sector wages may fall due to in-migration of the ‘newly’ unemployed. Fear of job and income loss may then induce office-seeking political parties to announce regulatory policies on automation for electoral success. We show that absent sectoral spillover, democratic adoption of automation is relatively higher and protects only high-skilled jobs in the advanced sector. However, the possibility of spillover limits this adoption. More specifically, if the backward sector is large, automation faces full resistance. In contrast, if the advanced sector is large, automation is moderate, making only the low-skilled jobs vulnerable. But these vulnerable workers, unlike their counterparts in the backward sector, may prefer automation because their advanced-sector wages fall below the severance pay plus backward-sector opportunities. When neither sector is large, the size of automation becomes uncertain, pushing similar economies into different growth paths.

Suggested Citation

  • Roy, Jaideep & Saha, Bibhas, 2026. "Electoral politics over automation in a dual economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:179:y:2026:i:c:s0304387825002445
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103693
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D20 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - General
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • P10 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - General

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