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From semi-field to endemic setting: Modeling the impact of symbiotic bacteria release on dengue transmission in Kerala

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  • Wang, Yan
  • Ma, Huan
  • Yang, Zhichun

Abstract

To assess the potential of the symbiotic bacterium Rosenbergiella_YN46 for dengue prevention and control from semi-field settings toward practical application, this study developed a transmission model incorporating bacterial colonization dynamics. Theoretical analysis derived the basic reproduction number (R0) as the epidemic threshold. We proved that when R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, whereas when R0>1, the disease persists and the system exhibits only a forward bifurcation. For quantitative assessment in a realistic epidemiological context, we selected the Indian state of Kerala, which shares similar climatic conditions with the Rosenbergiella_YN46 semi-field experimental site (Xishuangbanna, Yunnan Province, China) but experiences endemic dengue transmission. Using 50 months of reported case data from November 2020 to December 2024, we estimated the parameters of the intervention-free model via Bayesian method, yielding an R0 of 1.04, which consistent with low-intensity but persistent transmission. Sensitivity analysis revealed that Rosenbergiella_YN46-related parameters (colonization rate δ, release intensity u, and decay rate η) substantially influence transmission dynamics. Numerical simulations further demonstrated that continuous Rosenbergiella_YN46 release can effectively reduce epidemic peaks and delay their occurrence; higher release intensity enhances inhibition, and within a certain timeframe, increasing intensity can compensate for delayed intervention initiation. By completing the full process of “modeling-parameterization-simulation”, this study provides a quantitative basis for informing practical application strategies of Rosenbergiella_YN46 in dengue-endemic regions similar to Kerala.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yan & Ma, Huan & Yang, Zhichun, 2026. "From semi-field to endemic setting: Modeling the impact of symbiotic bacteria release on dengue transmission in Kerala," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 210(P1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:210:y:2026:i:p1:s0960077926007587
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2026.118617
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