Evolutionary dynamics of Common Pool Resources under Shifting Baseline Syndrome

The sustainable governance of Common Pool Resources (CPRs) is threatened not only by physical over-exploitation but also by cognitive vulnerabilities, most notably Shifting Baseline Syndrome (SBS)—a phenomenon where successive generations normalize progressively degraded ecological states. Traditional Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT) models of socio-ecological systems typically assume that agents possess a static, objective awareness of environmental health, failing to capture the impact of this generational amnesia on cooperative behavior. To address this theoretical gap, this paper introduces a novel socio-ecological framework that embeds a dynamic psychological baseline into the evolutionary dynamics of resource extraction. We posit that strategic adaptation is driven not by absolute resource scarcity, but by perceptual dissonance: the discrepancy between the realized resource state and the collective memory baseline. By synthesizing a macroscopic system of ordinary differential equations with microscopic agent-based network simulations, we rigorously analyze the co-evolution of resource stocks, collective memory, and cooperative strategies. Our analytical and numerical results reveal a critical transcritical bifurcation that separates deterministic collapse from sustainable coexistence. We demonstrate that in vulnerable ecological regimes, rapid cognitive adaptation (forgetting) masks environmental degradation, structurally disincentivizing cooperation and accelerating ecological collapse. Conversely, preserving the fidelity of ecological memory maintains perceptual urgency, allowing the coupled human-environment system to self-correct and converge to a sustainable manifold. Ultimately, this study highlights that averting the tragedy of the commons requires managing both the physical limits of ecosystems and the integrity of our collective ecological memory.