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Game-theoretic behavioral adaptation in non-Markovian epidemic spreading on networks

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Zehui
  • Wei, Kexin
  • Wang, Fang
  • Liu, Lilin

Abstract

Epidemic spreading is influenced by both temporal memory effects and adaptive human behavior. Although behavioral adaptation has been widely studied in Markovian epidemic models, its interaction with non-Markovian spreading dynamics remains poorly understood. we introduce AG-nSIS (Adaptive Game-coupled non-Markovian Susceptible–Infectious–Susceptible), a modeling framework that integrates adaptive game-theoretic decision-making with non-Markovian SIS dynamics on complex networks. AG-nSIS couples an evolutionary game for protective behavior with age-dependent infection and recovery processes, enabling us to derive a self-consistent condition for the steady-state level of protection. Through extensive numerical simulations, we show that adaptive behavior fundamentally reshapes non-Markovian epidemic spreading. Specifically, strategy-modulated transmission factors c critically regulate outbreak potential by tuning the effective transmission rate across different behavioral interactions. Moreover, the co-evolutionary game dynamics substantially curb both the final outbreak size and the endemic prevalence.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Zehui & Wei, Kexin & Wang, Fang & Liu, Lilin, 2026. "Game-theoretic behavioral adaptation in non-Markovian epidemic spreading on networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:207:y:2026:i:c:s0960077926001566
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2026.118015
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