A method for ground surface temperature prediction and its applications by solving heat conduction problems under complex periodic boundary conditions

In the present study, the calculation of ground surface temperature (GST) is formulated as a heat conduction problem under complex-periodic thermal boundary conditions involving solar radiation heat flux, convective heat transfer and radiative heat transfer (RHT). By solving the heat conduction problem, we develop a quantitative functional relationship between surface heat fluxes and GST, proposing a novel method for calculating GST. Comprehensive verification and comparison with other methods of GST, demonstrate the accuracy of the method in predicting GST under different environmental and material conditions. This method clarifies the main factors affecting GST and quantifies the surface heat flux ratio and heat balance ratio under different heat fluxes. The results show that the surface heat flux from RHT is approximately 5.67ε (surface radiance) times the ground-air temperature difference, and RHT contributes nearly 50 % to the total heat transfer at higher heat flux and lower wind speed, highlighting the need to include RHT effects in predictive models of GST to reduce potential error. In addition, this work also confirms that the dynamic change of vegetation coverage also plays a critical role in the GST, so it emphasizes the need to consider this variable in the GST prediction models to enhance the accuracy.