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Stochastic dynamics and probability analysis for a generalized epidemic model with environmental noise

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  • Boukanjime, Brahim
  • Maama, Mohamed

Abstract

In this paper we consider a stochastic SEIQR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Quarantined–Recovered) epidemic model with a generalized incidence function. Using the Lyapunov method, we establish the existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution to the model, ensuring that it remains well-defined over time. We further establish V-geometric ergodicity, which guarantees the exponential convergence of the system’s probability distribution to its stationary measure, providing a quantitative measure of the system’s stability over time. By leveraging Young’s and Chebyshev’s inequalities, we demonstrate the concepts of stochastic ultimate boundedness and stochastic permanence, providing insights into the long-term behavior of the epidemic dynamics under random perturbations. Additionally, we derive conditions for stochastic extinction, which describes scenarios where the epidemic may eventually die out. Finally, we perform numerical simulations to verify our theoretical results and assess the model’s behavior under different parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Boukanjime, Brahim & Maama, Mohamed, 2025. "Stochastic dynamics and probability analysis for a generalized epidemic model with environmental noise," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 199(P2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:199:y:2025:i:p2:s096007792500757x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116744
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cai, Yongli & Kang, Yun & Wang, Weiming, 2017. "A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 305(C), pages 221-240.
    2. Boukanjime, Brahim & El Fatini, Mohamed & Laaribi, Aziz & Taki, Regragui, 2019. "Analysis of a deterministic and a stochastic epidemic model with two distinct epidemics hypothesis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
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    4. Boukanjime, Brahim & El Fatini, Mohamed, 2019. "A stochastic Hepatitis B epidemic model driven by Lévy noise," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 796-806.
    5. Boukanjime, Brahim & Caraballo, Tomás & El Fatini, Mohamed & El Khalifi, Mohamed, 2020. "Dynamics of a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic model with Markovian switching," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Laaribi, Aziz & Boukanjime, Brahim & El Khalifi, Mohamed & Bouggar, Driss & El Fatini, Mohamed, 2023. "A generalized stochastic SIRS epidemic model incorporating mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 615(C).
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