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Bifurcation and stability analysis and control strategy study of a class SEIWR infectious disease models considering viral loads in the environment

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  • Cheng, Kedeng
  • Qiao, Yuanhua

Abstract

In this paper, a SEIWR epidemic model with virus compartment and Holling-II infection is established, and the nonlinear incidence rate and the saturation treatment function are considered. Firstly, the boundedness of the model solution is proved and the basic reproduction number is obtained. The global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points is explored using Lyapunov function method and Li Muldowney geometry method. Secondly, the conditions for the system to undergo forward and backward bifurcation are given, as well as the conditions for Hopf bifurcation, and the theoretical results are verified through numerical simulations. As an example, the model is used to fit the actual data of COVID-19 and tuberculosis in China, and it is found that the model is well enough to explain the transmission characteristics of the infectious diseases. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures and find that the most useful control measures are regular disinfection-sterilization and increasing public awareness of the disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Kedeng & Qiao, Yuanhua, 2025. "Bifurcation and stability analysis and control strategy study of a class SEIWR infectious disease models considering viral loads in the environment," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:198:y:2025:i:c:s096007792500503x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116490
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shang, Zuchong & Qiao, Yuanhua, 2024. "Complex dynamics of a four-species food web model with nonlinear top predator harvesting and fear effect," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 458-484.
    2. Kumar, Arjun & Gupta, Ashvini & Dubey, Uma S. & Dubey, Balram, 2023. "Stability and bifurcation analysis of an infectious disease model with different optimal control strategies," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 78-114.
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