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Thermal extremes and airline reliability: Evidence from China's aviation market

Author

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  • Hao, Jingjun
  • Wang, Di
  • Yao, Xin

Abstract

Studies about climate change effects on service industries in developing countries are limited. Using data from daily flights among 211 Chinese airports (2015–2017), this paper investigates the causal impacts of extreme temperatures on aviation service quality, measured by flight delays. We find that extreme low temperatures significantly increase flight delays, with additional exposure causing longer departure delays, arrival delays, and excessive travel time. Conversely, extreme high temperatures have limited effects or even improve punctuality. This discrepancy arises primarily from differing meteorological disruptions and distinct market-driven airline operational adjustments in response to cold versus hot weather conditions. Low temperatures (< 0 °C) impose significant social costs averaging around 0.1% of each city's GDP while reduction in arrival delays due to high temperatures (>20 °C) yields average monetary gains equivalent to about 0.04% of local GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao, Jingjun & Wang, Di & Yao, Xin, 2026. "Thermal extremes and airline reliability: Evidence from China's aviation market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:99:y:2026:i:c:s1043951x2600091x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102741
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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