From farm to firewall: E-commerce and the growth of new occupational opportunities

China has emerged as the world's largest e-commerce market, reshaping the structure of labor markets and potentially expanding employment opportunities. This study examines whether the rapid expansion of rural e-commerce, via the E-commerce into the Countryside (ECC) policy, has facilitated intergenerational occupational mobility. Leveraging nationally representative household survey data comprising 8329 household-level observations spanning from 2012 to 2022 and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) design, we identify a significant positive effect of the ECC initiative, with an estimated 10.6% point increase in intergenerational occupational mobility. These findings are robust to a series of endogeneity corrections and sensitivity tests. To unpack the underlying mechanisms, we show that the ECC policy promotes intergenerational occupational mobility by narrowing the digital divide, enhancing access to social capital, and disrupting entrenched traditional occupational trajectories. Our heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the magnitude of the effect of ECC policy depends on the local capacity to implement digital infrastructure and institutional support—particularly in regions that have developed multi-level rural e-commerce service platforms, modern logistics networks, diversified digital talent pools, and advanced rural e-commerce industrial clusters. Beyond occupational shifts, we also assess the influence of ECC policy on intergenerational income mobility. While the overall effect is statistically insignificant, we find that the complementary institutional mechanisms, such as agricultural cooperatives, can amplify the income mobility potential of e-commerce initiatives. The study concludes with policy recommendations aimed at deepening digital infrastructure, strengthening rural institutions, and promoting inclusive economic development.