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Spillover effects of fertility on married women's employment: Evidence from China

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  • Li, Chang Hong
  • Zhao, Min Qiang

Abstract

This paper investigates the spillover effects of fertility policy on employment, a largely unexplored area in the literature. Using China's 2013 selective two-child policy as a quasi-natural experiment and a difference-in-differences approach with census data, we find that the policy significantly increased the employment probability of all women, not just those directly eligible. This employment effect was stronger in regions with a higher proportion of eligible couples. Furthermore, the positive employment impact extended to unmarried women and men. We identify two key mechanisms: (1) an employment spillover, where the policy-induced increase in births spurred net entry of firms in fertility-related sectors, and (2) a fertility spillover, where peer effects appeared to amplify the initial birth shock among the broader population. Our findings demonstrate that fertility policies can have substantial indirect effects on the broader labor market, moving beyond the traditionally studied direct impact on mothers.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Chang Hong & Zhao, Min Qiang, 2026. "Spillover effects of fertility on married women's employment: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:95:y:2026:i:c:s1043951x25002986
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102640
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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