Import diversification, market risk co-movement and Agri-food supply chain resilience

As China becomes more deeply integrated into the global value chains and global trade volatility intensifies, mitigating risks in the Agri-food supply chain and safeguarding food security have emerged as critical strategic priorities for national economic stability and public welfare. This study investigates the impact of import diversification on Agri-food supply chain resilience, explores how market risk co-movement dynamically influences the effectiveness of diversification strategy, and validates the findings using survival analysis. The results suggest that import diversification significantly mitigates the risk of supply chain disruptions faced by Agri-food enterprises. However, market risk co-movement undermines the effectiveness of the import diversification strategy, thereby diminishing its positive impact on supply chain resilience. This conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness and endogeneity checks, including alternative diversification measures, adjustments for data quality, and the exclusion of potential policy-related distortions. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the resilience-enhancing effect of diversification is more pronounced when Agri-food enterprises act as lead firms, operate at a mature stage, are state-owned, and source imports from markets with established trade agreements with China. Further analysis indicates that, due to the “ripple effect” within the supply chain, import uncertainty in the upstream segments—Induced by market risk co-movement—Is transmitted along the supply chain, thereby increasing the risk of decoupling. In addition, the relationship between import diversification and supply chain resilience is found to be nonlinear. The improvement of Agri-food supply chain resilience is not an automatic outcome of increased import diversification, but rather a phased effect moderated by market risk co-movement. Grounded in the concept of risk co-movement, this study offers a novel perspective on diversification strategies and provides practical insights for Chinese Agri-food enterprises to enhance supply chain risk management and promote supply chain stability