Robust parameter estimation for rational ordinary differential equations

We present a new approach for estimating parameters in rational ODE models from given (measured) time series data. In typical existing approaches, an initial guess for the parameter values is made from a given search interval. Then, in a loop, the corresponding outputs are computed by solving the ODE numerically, followed by computing the error from the given time series data. If the error is small, the loop terminates and the parameter values are returned. Otherwise, heuristics/theories are used to possibly improve the guess and continue the loop. These approaches tend to be non-robust in the sense that their accuracy often depends on the search interval and the true parameter values; furthermore, they cannot handle cases where the parameters are only locally identifiable.