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Routes to extreme events in forced-transmission eco-epidemic model: A dynamical-systems perspective

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  • Saiparasad, V.R.
  • Kaviya, B.
  • Senthilkumar, D.V.
  • Chandrasekar, V.K.

Abstract

We employ a seasonally forced eco-epidemiological predator–prey model to investigate how periodic transmission shapes population dynamics and rare outbreaks. Through numerical simulations supported by bifurcation diagrams, Lyapunov-exponent spectra, and fractal-dimension analysis, we identify transitions between periodic, chaotic, and intermittent extreme-event regimes as forcing amplitude and frequency vary. A rigorous extreme-value framework, combining Generalized Pareto Peak Over Threshold (POT) fits of threshold exceedances with Gamma-distributed Inter-Spike-Interval (ISI) analysis, confirms that both amplitude and temporal outliers are accurately captured. Results indicate that high-frequency forcing enhances chaotic irregularity while inhibiting extreme peaks, whereas low-frequency forcing promotes sporadic large-amplitude events. Global elasticity indices under ±20% parameter perturbations reveal that these dynamical regimes persist under ecological uncertainty. These findings highlight the pivotal role of seasonality in disease-driven ecological dynamics and offer quantitative tools for forecasting and mitigating rare outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Saiparasad, V.R. & Kaviya, B. & Senthilkumar, D.V. & Chandrasekar, V.K., 2026. "Routes to extreme events in forced-transmission eco-epidemic model: A dynamical-systems perspective," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 508(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:508:y:2026:i:c:s0096300325003455
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2025.129619
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