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Stability analysis and optimal control of a fractional-order generalized SEIR model for the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Xu, Conghui
  • Yu, Yongguang
  • Ren, Guojian
  • Sun, Yuqin
  • Si, Xinhui

Abstract

In view of the spread of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), this paper proposes a fractional-order generalized SEIR model. The non-negativity of the solution of the model is discussed. Based on the established threshold R0, the existence of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is analyzed. Then, sufficient conditions are established to ensure the local asymptotic stability of the equilibria. The parameters of the model are identified based on the statistical data of COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, the validity of the model for describing the COVID-19 outbreak is verified. Meanwhile, the accuracy of the relevant theoretical results are also verified. Considering the relevant strategies of COVID-19 prevention and control, the fractional optimal control problem (FOCP) is proposed. Numerical schemes for Riemann–Liouville (R–L) fractional-order adjoint system with transversal conditions is presented. Based on the relevant statistical data, the corresponding FOCP is numerically solved, and the control effect of the COVID-19 outbreak under the optimal control strategy is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Conghui & Yu, Yongguang & Ren, Guojian & Sun, Yuqin & Si, Xinhui, 2023. "Stability analysis and optimal control of a fractional-order generalized SEIR model for the COVID-19 pandemic," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 457(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:457:y:2023:i:c:s009630032300379x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2023.128210
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