Dynamical chaos in a simple model of a knuckleball

The knuckleball is perhaps the most enigmatic pitch in baseball. Relying on the presence of raised seams on the surface of the ball to create asymmetric flow, a knuckleball’s trajectory has proven very challenging to predict compared to other baseball pitches, such as fastballs or curveballs. Previous experimental tracking of large numbers of knuckleballs has shown that they can move in essentially any direction relative to what would be expected from a drag-only trajectory. This has led to speculation that knuckleballs exhibit chaotic motion. Here we develop a relatively simple model of a knuckleball that includes quadratic drag and lift from asymmetric flow which is taken from experimental measurements of slowly rotating baseballs. Our models can indeed exhibit dynamical chaos as long as torque on the ball from the asymmetric flow is included. In contrast, models that omit torques on the ball in flight do not show chaotic behavior. Uncertainties in the phase space position of the knuckleball are shown to grow by factors as large as 106 over the flight of the ball from the pitcher to home plate. We quantify the impact of our model parameters on the chaos realized in our models, specifically showing that maximum Lyapunov exponent is roughly proportional to the square root of the effective lever arm of the torque, and also roughly proportional to the initial velocity of the pitch. We demonstrate the existence of bifurcations that can produce changes in the location of the ball when it reaches the plate of as much as 1.2 m for specific initial conditions similar to those used by professional knuckleball pitchers. As we introduce additional complexity in the form of more faithful representations of the empirical asymmetry force measurements, we find that a larger fraction of the possible initial conditions result in dynamical chaos. The chaotic behavior seen in our simplified model combined with the additional complex and nonlinear effects likely present in real knuckleballs provide strong evidence that knuckleballs are in fact chaotic, and that the chaotic uncertainty is likely a significant factor in the unpredictability of the pitch.