A review of the second tourism forecasting competition for post-pandemic recovery

Ex ante forecasting represents a rigorous approach to evaluating the performance of tourism demand forecasting methods. In 2023, Annals of Tourism Research and the International Institute of Forecasters jointly launched the second international tourism forecasting competition, with a specific focus on the post-pandemic recovery of Chinese outbound tourism demand. The competition attracted 24 teams globally, implementing a diverse set of advanced forecasting methodologies for both point and interval forecasts. This paper reviews and synthesises the key outcomes of the competition and derives critical insights. For example, combination and ensemble forecasting frameworks outperform single-model approaches generally; inclusion of explanatory indicators improves forecasting accuracy. The findings advance methodological and practical understanding of tourism demand forecasting, particularly in crisis and post-shock recovery contexts.