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Perú: integración, especialización sectorial y sincronización de los ciclos internacionales del producto

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  • Tello, Mario D.

Abstract

Se analizan las interrelaciones de la integración comercial, financiera y de especialización sectorial con el grado de sincronización entre los ciclos del producto interno bruto (PIB) del Perú y los respectivos de los 31 principales países socios comerciales. El análisis se basa en la estimación de un sistema de ecuaciones simultáneas con datos de panel, en que además se considera la repercusión de los acuerdos preferenciales de comercio (APC). Los resultados muestran relaciones robustas y bidireccionales entre el grado de sincronización y el de integración financiera, entre este y la integración comercial, y de esta con el nivel de especialización sectorial. Los APC no incidieron en las diversas variables consideradas. Estas evidencias sugieren que una mayor integración comercial en el Perú agudizaría los efectos de los ciclos del PIB de los países socios en el producto peruano en el contexto de las crisis de 2008 y 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Tello, Mario D., 2012. "Perú: integración, especialización sectorial y sincronización de los ciclos internacionales del producto," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11528 Note: Incluye Bibliografía
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    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/11528
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    References listed on IDEAS

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