Exploring the Causal Relationship between Total and Renewable Energy Consumption, Agricultural Growth, and CO2 Emissions: A VAR-Based Analysis of Kazakhstan's Path toward Sustainable Development

This study investigates the dynamic interplay among agricultural growth, total energy consumption, renewable energy penetration, and CO? emissions in Kazakhstan, using annual data for 2001-2024. Augmented Dickey-Fuller diagnostics classify all series as I(1), and information criteria favor a parsimonious VAR(1). Variance decompositions indicate that agricultural growth is primarily driven by own shocks, with a growing medium-horizon contribution from CO?. Total energy use remains largely self-propelled, accompanied by modest spillovers from agriculture and a gradual feedback from emissions. The renewable share increasingly reflects movements in total energy demand at longer horizons, while agriculture contributes a smaller but persistent portion; the direct role of CO? in renewable dynamics is negligible under orthogonalized innovations. Emissions variability is governed chiefly by shocks to aggregate energy demand and by own persistence. Pairwise Granger tests uncover a single predictive channel - total energy use Granger-causing the renewable share - whereas other pairs do not exhibit short-run directionality at conventional thresholds. Taken together, the evidence portrays a demand-led nexus in which aggregate energy conditions steer near-term adjustments, agricultural performance reflects internal dynamics and environmental pressure, and emissions co-move with energy demand. The findings underscore policy relevance for demand management, grid integration with bankable procurement of renewables, and climate-smart upgrades in irrigation and inputs.