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Energy-Related Uncertainty and Tourism Stock Markets: New Insights from Time-Varying Relationship with TVP- VAR Approach

Author

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  • Mamadiyarov, Zokir

    (Department of Economics, Mamun University, Khiva, Uzbekistan)

  • Saidov, Otabek

    (Department of Economics, Urgench State University, Urgench, Uzbekistan)

  • Abdurazakova, Nargiza

    (Department of Finance, Alfraganus University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan)

  • Makhmudov, Samariddin

    (Department of Finance and Tourism, Termez University of Economics and Service, Termez, Uzbekistan; & Center of the Engagement of International Ranking Agencies, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, Uzbekistan)

  • Nazarov, Murod

    (Department of Translation Theory and Practice, Urgench State University, Home 14, Kh. Alimjan Str., 220100 Urgench, Uzbekistan)

  • Rajabova, Nilufar

    (Urgench State Pedagogical Institute, Urgench, Uzbekistan)

  • AlShami, Mohamed

    (University of Fujairah, Fujairah, UAE,)

  • Ruzmetova, Iroda

    (Department of Economics, Urgench State University, Home 14, Kh. Alimjan Str., 220100 Urgench, Uzbekistan)

Abstract

In this study, a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is estimated to examine the effects of energy-related uncertainty, geopolitical risk and global economic activity on tourism stock prices in the United States (US) over the period February 1996-September 2022. The time-varying responses reveal that tourism stocks are negatively affected by energy-related uncertainty, particularly during financial crisis and COVID-19. Moreover, geopolitical risk shocks also negatively influence tourism stocks. Global economic activity exhibits both positive and negative shocks in tourism stocks. The results highlight the importance of considering sector-specific dynamics of energy-related uncertainty on tourism stocks in US.

Suggested Citation

  • Mamadiyarov, Zokir & Saidov, Otabek & Abdurazakova, Nargiza & Makhmudov, Samariddin & Nazarov, Murod & Rajabova, Nilufar & AlShami, Mohamed & Ruzmetova, Iroda, 2025. "Energy-Related Uncertainty and Tourism Stock Markets: New Insights from Time-Varying Relationship with TVP- VAR Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 15(4), pages 730-737, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:v:15:y:2025:i:4:id:20480
    DOI: 10.32479/ijeep.20480
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