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The Determinants of Inflation in India: The Bounds Test Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Md Qaiser Alam

    (Department of Economics, D.S (P.G) College, Aligarh, Uttar Pradesh, India)

  • Md Shabbir Alam

    (Department of Accounting & Finance, CCBA, Dhofar University, Oman)

Abstract

India is facing a fast rise in the general price level for the last couple of years. This paper seeks to empirically examine the sources of inflation in India both in the long-run and in the short-run by using the co-integration method developed by Pesaran et al. (2000). The empirical findings suggests that in the long-run money supply (MS), depreciation of the rupee and supply bottlenecks puts a pressure on the domestic price level by causing inflation to rise in the country. The analysis reveals that in the long-run domestic factors as monetary growth and supply bottlenecks dominates the external factors for a rise in the domestic prices in the economy. The short-run analysis also reveals that domestic factor MS and supply bottlenecks dominate the external factor as a measure cause for a persistent rise in the price level in the country. The supply bottlenecks are though a significant factor in the short-run, but its importance in the long-run is relatively small

Suggested Citation

  • Md Qaiser Alam & Md Shabbir Alam, 2016. "The Determinants of Inflation in India: The Bounds Test Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 544-550.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2016-02-26
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wong, Zoey Jia Rou & Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2020. "Credit Card Usage and Inflation: A Case Study of a Small Open Economy," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(1), pages 19-32.
    2. Gurleen Kaur, 2021. "Inflation and Fiscal Deficit in India: An ARDL Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1553-1573, December.
    3. Shikha Sharma & Manju Dahiya, 2023. "Analysis of the Effect of Currency Exchange Rate, Broad Money (M3) and Oil Prices on Inflation in India," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 158-168, May.
    4. Monika Gupta & Shubhi Bansal, 2020. "Covid-19 Disruption of Middle-Class Monthly Household Income and Budget," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 10-17.
    5. Aijaz Ahmad Bhat & Javaid Iqbal Khan & Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Javed Ahmad Bhat, 2023. "Central Bank Independence and Inflation in India: The Role of Financial Development," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 392-407, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Money Supply; Exchange Rate; World Price; Gross Domestic Product Gap; Bounds Test; Error Correction Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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