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A Seasonal Model of Consumption

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  • Birchenhall, C R, et al

Abstract

In this paper, the authors present strong empirical evidence that the long-run income elasticity of U.K. nondurable consumers' expenditure and its short-run rate of adjustment both vary across seasons. Such variability in the behavior of consumers is consistent with the hypotheses that consumers have seasonal preferences and that they exhibit seasonally varying degrees of habit persistence. The tests are based on a modified form of the error correction methodology that allows for seasonally varying slope coefficients. Simulations for the dynamic responses of the authors' model illustrate the important policy implications of these results. Coauthors are R. C. Bladen-Hovell, A. P. L. Chui, Denise R. Osborn, and J. P. Smith. Copyright 1989 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Birchenhall, C R, et al, 1989. "A Seasonal Model of Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 837-843, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:99:y:1989:i:397:p:837-43
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    Cited by:

    1. Ulph, A., 1993. "Environmental policy and international trade when governments and producers act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9318, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    2. del Barrio Castro, Tom s & Osborn, Denise R., 2008. "Cointegration For Periodically Integrated Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 109-142, February.
    3. Aldrich, J., 1992. "Haavelmo's Identification Theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9218, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    4. Lof, Marten & Hans Franses, Philip, 2001. "On forecasting cointegrated seasonal time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 607-621.
    5. Chadha, J.S. & Schellekens, P., 1998. "Utility functions for central bankers: the not so drastic quadratic," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9818, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    6. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    7. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Hong-Anh Tran, 1993. "Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing, and the demand for money in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 457, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Bukhari, Syed Kalim Hyder & Abdul, Jalil & Rao, Nasir Hamid, 2011. "Detection and Forecasting of Islamic Calendar Effects in Time Series Data: Revisited," MPRA Paper 31124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ulph, A., 1997. "Political institutions and the design of environmental policy in a federal system with asymmetric information," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9718, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    10. Herwartz, Helmut, 1997. "Performance of periodic error correction models in forecasting consumption data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 421-431, September.
    11. Ulph, A., 1995. "International environmental regulation when national governments act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9518, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    12. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Bribery, efficiency wages and political protection," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9418, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    13. Cook, S., 1996. "Econometric methodology I," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9618, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    14. Franses, Philip Hans, 1995. "The effects of seasonally adjusting a periodic autoregressive process," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 683-704, June.
    15. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1999. "On selecting policy analysis models by forecast accuracy," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9918, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

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