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Tracking trade in real time: augmenting the nowcasting toolkit with satellite data

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  • Gerinovics, Rinalds
  • Meunier, Baptiste

Abstract

This box presents the ECB’s new global trade tracker, which combines real-time satellite data on vessel movements with traditional high-frequency financial and survey data. The satellite component uses the automatic identification system, which records the positions of ships and cargo activity in near real time, thereby providing detailed information on trade flows by country and by commodity. Augmenting the tracker with satellite-based indicators enhances markedly its ability to capture shifts in global trade dynamics. Compared with a previous version that relied mainly on financial indicators, the satellite-data-enhanced tracker improves forecast accuracy, with gains being particularly pronounced during episodes of rapid disruption to international trade. JEL Classification: F10, C55, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Gerinovics, Rinalds & Meunier, Baptiste, 2026. "Tracking trade in real time: augmenting the nowcasting toolkit with satellite data," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 8.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2026:0008:3
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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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