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The uneven journey of wholesale gas and electricity prices to consumer bills

Author

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  • Kuik, Friderike
  • Lis, Eliza
  • Schäfer, Johannes

Abstract

The sharp rise in energy prices in the first half of 2026 evoked memories of the 2021-22 energy price shock. However, the 2026 energy price shock has so far been smaller in scale. This reflects more limited growth in wholesale gas prices and an increased share of electricity generated from renewables, which has dampened the pass-through of gas prices to wholesale electricity prices. The transmission of wholesale prices to retail prices has also changed, becoming somewhat faster for gas prices. These developments imply that shifts in wholesale gas prices may be feeding through to HICP gas inflation somewhat more swiftly than in the past, while having a lesser impact on HICP electricity inflation. At the same time, both the role of gas prices in wholesale electricity prices and the transmission of wholesale prices to retail prices remain uneven across countries. JEL Classification: E31, Q41, Q42, Q43

Suggested Citation

  • Kuik, Friderike & Lis, Eliza & Schäfer, Johannes, 2026. "The uneven journey of wholesale gas and electricity prices to consumer bills," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2026:0006:4
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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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