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Navigating uncertainty: how the Middle East conflict is shaping expectations and coping strategies of firms

Author

Listed:
  • Bodnár, Katalin
  • Fantino, Davide
  • Lamboglia, Sara
  • Lebastard, Laura

Abstract

In the Survey on the Access to Financing of Enterprises (SAFE) for the second quarter of 2026, firms were asked about their exposure to the conflict in the Middle East, how the conflict has influenced their expectations, and what coping strategies they have adopted. It found that exposure to the conflict is higher for small and medium-sized enterprises, for exporters and in the trade sector. The conflict has primarily affected firms’ expectations for nominal variables and demand, while the impact on expectations for other real variables is small. The main coping strategies reported by firms include seeking alternative suppliers of energy, raw materials and components, as well as accelerating investment in energy efficiency. JEL Classification: C83, D22, D84

Suggested Citation

  • Bodnár, Katalin & Fantino, Davide & Lamboglia, Sara & Lebastard, Laura, 2026. "Navigating uncertainty: how the Middle East conflict is shaping expectations and coping strategies of firms," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2026:0006:2
    Note: 2881411
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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