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The narrowing of the euro area current account balance in 2025

Author

Listed:
  • Emter, Lorenz
  • Fidora, Michael
  • Pastoris, Fausto
  • Schmitz, Martin

Abstract

This box examines the narrowing of the euro area current account surplus from 2.7% of GDP in 2024 to 1.7% in 2025. The decline was driven mainly by services trade and income flows and particularly by developments vis-à-vis the United States and China. For the United States, this reflected the role of US multinational enterprises, whose euro area affiliates supported goods exports but generated larger services and income deficits. Imports from China grew, especially in machinery and manufactured goods. AI-related goods had only a limited direct effect on the goods balance, but it is likely that rising AI adoption boosted imports of digital services. From a saving and investment perspective, the lower surplus reflected reduced net lending by non-financial corporations, owing to both lower saving and higher domestic investment needs. Overall, the euro area current account surplus is expected to remain below its 2024 level over the medium term. JEL Classification: E22, F23, F43, F62

Suggested Citation

  • Emter, Lorenz & Fidora, Michael & Pastoris, Fausto & Schmitz, Martin, 2026. "The narrowing of the euro area current account balance in 2025," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2026:0004:8
    Note: 491968
    as

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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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