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Where do the costs of higher US tariffs fall?

Author

Listed:
  • Schaefer, Stefan
  • Gerland, Lisa
  • Tirpák, Marcel

Abstract

In this box, we show that exporters to the United States are, in aggregate, absorbing only a small fraction of the higher US tariffs. We document a wide range of responses to tariffs across country-sector pairs exporting to the US market. In addition, using product-level trade data, we show that US tariffs have led to a strong adjustment in imports, both across product categories and in overall volume. While tariffs are reshaping the geography of trade linkages, the associated costs are falling mostly on US importers and consumers. JEL Classification: E23, E31, F13

Suggested Citation

  • Schaefer, Stefan & Gerland, Lisa & Tirpák, Marcel, 2026. "Where do the costs of higher US tariffs fall?," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2026:0002:1
    Note: 500372
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/economic-bulletin/focus/2026/html/ecb.ebbox202602_01~e0af0d74d5.en.html
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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