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Consumer expectations and actions during the recent trade tensions

Author

Listed:
  • Baumann, Adam
  • Caprari, Luca
  • Dossche, Maarten
  • Kocharkov, Georgi
  • Kouvavas, Omiros

Abstract

Recent trade tensions and tariff announcements are significantly influencing the behaviour and expectations of European consumers. As revealed by the June 2025 Consumer Expectations Survey, consumers expect tariffs to drive up inflation, weaken household finances and dampen economic growth. In response, consumers are reducing overall spending or switching away from US products. While lower-income households are likely to cut back on spending, high-income households are more likely to substitute goods. These findings highlight the tangible impact of trade tensions and uncertainty introduced by tariffs on inflation and growth expectations, consumer behaviour and, possibly, broader economic developments. JEL Classification: D12, D84, F14

Suggested Citation

  • Baumann, Adam & Caprari, Luca & Dossche, Maarten & Kocharkov, Georgi & Kouvavas, Omiros, 2025. "Consumer expectations and actions during the recent trade tensions," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2025:0006:2
    Note: 3577821
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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