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Understanding the slowdown in growth in 2018


  • Dossche, Maarten
  • Martínez-Martin, Jaime


Growth in economic activity has moderated significantly in the euro area since the end of 2017. Indeed, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the euro area fell to 0.2% in the third quarter of 2018, down from 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017. This box assesses the factors which are contributing to that slowdown and looks at whether it should be considered a surprise. In particular, it looks at whether the underlying factors are temporary or of a more permanent nature, whether they have originated within the euro area or externally, and whether the slowdown has been driven by a weakness in demand or a tightening of supply conditions. JEL Classification: E20, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Dossche, Maarten & Martínez-Martin, Jaime, 2018. "Understanding the slowdown in growth in 2018," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 8.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2018:0008:3
    Note: 3577821

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    Economic activity;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


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