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The recent slowdown in euro area output growth reflects both cyclical and temporary factors

Author

Listed:
  • Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo
  • Forsells, Magnus

Abstract

Following very strong growth rates in 2017, quarterly real GDP growth in the euro area moderated to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2018. The slowdown in growth at the start of the year, which appears to reflect temporary factors as well as more lasting cyclical factors, was in line with developments in economic indicators, notably survey data. Both the composite output Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) declined throughout the first quarter of 2018. However, it is important to note that, like output growth, these indicators fell back from exceptionally high levels. JEL Classification: E32, E66

Suggested Citation

  • Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Forsells, Magnus, 2018. "The recent slowdown in euro area output growth reflects both cyclical and temporary factors," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2018:0004:2
    Note: 339042
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2018/html/ecb.ebbox201804_02.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Mistretta, 2021. "Business cycle synchronization or business cycle transmission? The effect of the German slowdown on the Italian economy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1346, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    current conditions; economic outlook; euro area; general outlook; macroeconomic prospects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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