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Sectoral dynamics and the business cycle in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Battistini, Niccolò
  • Gareis, Johannes

Abstract

This article examines recent sectoral developments in the euro area and their near-term implications for the business cycle. After a brief review of the existing literature, it presents new evidence for the euro area. It first uses a simple aggregate measure of cross-sectoral shifts in activity to assess the short-term impact of these shifts on the business cycle. It then explores the leading-indicator properties of sectoral developments as regards aggregate activity and explains the correlation between these properties and the position of sectors within the production structure of the economy. Overall, the results of this article point to moderate momentum in economic activity in the euro area in the near term. JEL Classification: E23, E27, E32

Suggested Citation

  • Battistini, Niccolò & Gareis, Johannes, 2024. "Sectoral dynamics and the business cycle in the euro area," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbart:2024:0004:1
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/economic-bulletin/articles/2024/html/ecb.ebart202404_01~7283402c4b.en.html
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; Sectoral dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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