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Financial side over the real side: Effects in the Brazilian economy at last decade using hierarchical BVAR approach

Author

Listed:
  • Júlio Fernando Costa Santos

    (Federal University of Uberlândia)

  • Yasmim Dalila Barbant

    (Federal University of Espírito Santo)

  • Alexandre Ottoni Teatini Salles

    (Federal University of Espírito Santo)

Abstract

We estimate a hierarchical Bayesian VAR (BVAR) for Brazil covering 2015–2024 to examine how financial conditions—credit, household indebtedness, FDI, bank lending rates, and default rates—propagate to real activity—unemployment, investment, and industrial capacity utilization. Impulse-response evidence indicates transmission channels, especially credit and balance-sheet effects, that extend beyond the conventional interest-rate channel emphasized in standard monetary-policy analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Júlio Fernando Costa Santos & Yasmim Dalila Barbant & Alexandre Ottoni Teatini Salles, 2025. "Financial side over the real side: Effects in the Brazilian economy at last decade using hierarchical BVAR approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(4), pages 1826-1839.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-25-00278
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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