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Evaluating a long-run forecast: The World Bank poverty forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Jin Ho Kim

    (George Washington University)

  • Herman O Stekler

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

This paper examines an issue in long-run forecasting, evaluating a forecast for which the actual data are not yet available. In this case, we analyze the World Bank's forecasts of the poverty headcount made in 2002, but the actual data for the terminal date will not be available for some time. The methodology requires one to infer a forecast for an intermediate date for which the data are available. We show that the long-rum projections were extremely accurate because they are consistent with the trends that are observed in the latest available data.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin Ho Kim & Herman O Stekler, 2017. "Evaluating a long-run forecast: The World Bank poverty forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1151-1159.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00755
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    Keywords

    long run forecasts; poverty forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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