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Structural change and economic growth: a calibration exercise for Turkey


  • C. Emre Alper

    () (Bogazici University)

  • Oya Pinar Ardic

    () (Bogazici University)

  • Ozan Hatipoglu

    () (Bogazici University)


Using data for the years 1972-2006, we calibrate the dynamic general equilibrium model of structural change by Kongsamut et al. (2001) to Turkey. We then predict the shares of output and employment for the agricultural, manufacturing, and services sectors along the balanced growth path for Turkey until 2050. Similar to the past experience of the developed economies, we observe a declining share of agriculture in both employment and output. However, the rate of decline is much slower and based on the model, we predict the agricultural sector will still have a 10% share of output and employment by 2050 in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Ozan Hatipoglu, 2010. "Structural change and economic growth: a calibration exercise for Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 983-995.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00791

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    Structural Change; Economic Growth; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity


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