IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation and unemployment. Is there a Phillips curve for the USA?


  • Ivan Kitov

    () (IDG RAS)


During the last 25 years, unemployment in the USA is a lagged linear function of inflation and labor force relative change with time. The lag is currently of 2.5 years. Only a small decrease in labor force rate is currently observed compared to the strong growth between 1965 and 1990. According to the revealed relationship, the famous stagflation period is an obvious result of the lag. One can predict unemployment rate for the next 2.5 years with the accuracy of the inflation measurements. The end of 2005 is a pivot point from decreasing unemployment to a moderate growth to 6% in 2008. Cumulative values of the observed and the model predicted unemployment starting from 1960 are in an excellent agreement with the lag shifted from about 1 year to 2.5 years in 1979. There is no Phillips curve linking simultaneous values of inflation and unemployment but the former variable defines the latter in future.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Kitov, 2006. "Inflation and unemployment. Is there a Phillips curve for the USA?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(15), pages 1.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-05aa0014

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-05aa0014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.