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Economic Cycle Research Institute and Pennsylvania State University

Author

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  • Philip A. Klein

    (Lagging Indicators Forgotten Aids to Forecasting)

Abstract

Leading, coincident, and lagging indicators continue to corroborate Mitchell’s view that they reflect crucial sequential changes in economic activity. Lagging indicators, most especially in inverted form, exhibit long if variable leads at peaks, thereby becoming the first anticipation of a future peak. Evidence confirming past troughs is also the first sign of the next if still distant peak. Lagging indicators are also useful in forecasting inflation rate turns, leading at inflation cycle peaks by about six months in both the U.S. and Sweden. Our study confirms Geoffrey Moore’s old prediction that the lagging index would prove useful in assessing cyclical changes in economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip A. Klein, 2001. "Economic Cycle Research Institute and Pennsylvania State University," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 171-188, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:171-188
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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