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The Contribution of Economic Indicator Analysis to Understanding and Forecasting Business Cycles

Author

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  • Ernst A. Boehm

    (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research and Economic Cycle Research Institute)

Abstract

This paper reviews major features of the development of economic indicator analysis (EIA), notably its contribution to identifying, understanding, explaining and forecasting business cycles. The paper highlights the substantial pioneering role of Dr Geoffrey H. Moore in this development. The paper reviews some key issues regarding the selection and classification of economic indicators; and the methodologies developed to use these indicators to identify and measure business cycles on national, regional and sectoral bases. After making an overall assessment of EIA, acknowledgement is given to the widespread development and applications of EIA around the world to study the co-movements of key economic variables and to forshadow changes in them.

Suggested Citation

  • Ernst A. Boehm, 2001. "The Contribution of Economic Indicator Analysis to Understanding and Forecasting Business Cycles," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 1-36, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:1-36
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    Cited by:

    1. Ying Liu & Yibing Chen & Sheng Wu & Geng Peng & Benfu Lv, 2015. "Composite leading search index: a preprocessing method of internet search data for stock trends prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 77-94, November.
    2. Sumanpreet Kaur, 2019. "An Attempt to Predict Recession for the Indian Economy Using Leading Indicators," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(3), pages 171-190, September.
    3. Rafal Kasperowicz, 2010. "Identification Of Industrial Cycle Leading Indicators Using Causality Test," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 47-59, December.
    4. Arie Marom & Yigal Menashe & Tanya Suchoy, 2003. "The State-of-The-Economy Index and The probability of Recession: The Markov Regime-Switching Model," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2003.05, Bank of Israel.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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