Estimation of GHG emissions and costs in Sinaloa: Towards sustainable economic and environmental policies

Introduction: Climate change and its impacts have created the need for policies that balance economic growth with environmental sustainability. This study focuses on the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the state of Sinaloa, located in northwestern Mexico, during the period 2003–2021. Methods: Using historical energy consumption data and the State Quarterly Economic Activity Indicator, GHG emissions were estimated through an official national tool for emissions calculation. An economic cost was assigned using rates proposed by a center specialized in environmental and economic analysis in Mexico. Results: The findings reveal a strong positive correlation (R=0.893) between the State Quarterly Economic Activity Indicator and emissions, highlighting that Sinaloa's economic growth heavily depends on energy-intensive activities. Over the period analyzed, emissions increased by 83.8%. Conclusions: This study underscores the importance of designing public policies that reduce emissions without hindering economic development, promoting sustainable strategies that contribute to Mexico's commitments under the Paris Agreement.