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Market Intelligence: erklären oder prognostizieren?

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  • Marcel Gebhardt

Abstract

In market intelligence practice, there is a certain lack of clarity regarding the differences and use of the concepts of (causal) explanation and (empirical) prediction. It is often assumed that models with a high explanatory power are suitable for prediction as well. This paper tries to question this understanding by discussing the differences between explanation and prediction. / In der Market Intelligence-Praxis ist eine gewisse Unklarheit hinsichtlich der Unterschiede und der Verwendung der Konzepte der (kausalen) Erklärung und (empirischen) Prognose festzustellen. Häufig wird angenommen, dass Modelle mit einer hohen Erklärungskraft auch per se für die Prognose geeignet sind; d. h. häufig wird kausale Erklärung mit empirischer Prognose gleichgesetzt. Dieses Verständnis versucht der Beitrag durch Diskussion der Unterschiede zwischen Erklärung und Prognose in Frage zu stellen und herauszustellen, weshalb eine differenzierte Behandlung beider Zielrichtungen in der Praxis häufig von zentraler Bedeutung sein kann.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Gebhardt, 2020. "Market Intelligence: erklären oder prognostizieren?," Der Betriebswirt, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 61(3), pages 185-191.
    • Handle: RePEc:dah:aeqdbw:v61_y2020_i3_q3_p185-191
    DOI: 10.3790/dbw.61.3.185
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