Relationship between forest fires and climate variability: effects on agricultural production in the Ecuadorian Amazon

This study analyzes the relationship between agricultural burning, forest fires, rainfall variability, and its impact on agricultural production in the Ecuadorian Amazon. The research adopts a quantitative and explanatory approach, using geospatial information, satellite data, and climatic and agricultural records to identify a causal chain between human activities and environmental dynamics. The results show that agricultural burning significantly increases the occurrence of forest fires, especially during periods of high temperature and low humidity. In turn, forest fires negatively affect the rainfall regime due to the emission of aerosols and particulate matter that disrupt atmospheric condensation processes. This reduction in rainfall directly impacts agricultural productivity, considering that most production systems in the Ecuadorian Amazon rely on rain-fed agriculture. The econometric analysis with fixed effects and biophysical control variables allowed for the isolation of causal effects and confirmed the existence of an environmental impact chain linking fire use with reduced agricultural output. It is concluded that agricultural practices based on burning generate not only local effects but also regional consequences on climate regulation and food security. These findings highlight the need for public policies aimed at reducing the use of fire, preventing forest fires, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices in the Amazon region of Ecuador in order to ensure environmental conservation and long-term productive stability.